Early outlook points to warmer, lower-snow winter for much of B.C.

Much of British Columbia could see below-average snowfall and warmer-than-normal conditions this winter if a strong El Niño develops as expected, according to an early outlook from U.S.-based weather and snow-forecasting company OpenSnow.

The company based its outlook on comparable strong El Niño seasons, ocean and atmospheric signals, and seasonal model data. It said a warmer climate pattern and a more southerly storm track favour reduced snowfall across much of the province.

OpenSnow cautioned that individual El Niño winters can depart from the overall pattern. Its outlook shows a roughly neutral mid-mountain snow signal for Whistler, although more rain than usual is expected near the base.

Some Interior resorts in the Okanagan, including Big White, Sun Peaks and Silver Star, can at times perform near average as storms move north from the south. Resorts on the Kootenay-area Powder Highway, including Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Whitewater, Red Mountain and Fernie, more often see below-average snowfall in El Niño winters.

Using historical analogues, OpenSnow found an above-average snow signal for January, neutral signals for December and February, and below-average signals for November and March. It said the forecast indicates which outcome is favoured, not how far conditions may depart from normal.