Revised estimates put Canada’s population about 300,000 higher than previously thought

Canada has about 300,000 more residents than previously estimated, and revised figures overturn earlier indications that the population was shrinking. In an analysis released in late September 2026, Vancouver-based credit union Central 1 examined Statistics Canada’s updated estimates. Central 1 chief economist Bryan Yu said the population was nearly 41.8 million in July 2026. Canada added more than 80,300 residents in the second quarter, a 0.2 per cent increase. Year over year, the population grew by about 189,400, or 0.5 per cent. Central 1 cautioned that slower population gains will continue to weigh on consumer spending, housing demand and the economy.

British Columbia remained the province with the weakest annual population growth. Its population reached about 5.71 million in July 2026, an increase of just 8,053 people, or 0.1 per cent, from a year earlier. The province gained 6,914 residents from April to July after losing 2,649 in the first three months of the year.

The national revisions substantially change the picture in earlier estimates, which had shown two consecutive quarters of year-over-year population declines. The previous estimate for April 2026 indicated a 0.5 per cent annual decline; the revised figure shows a 0.5 per cent increase, a full percentage-point reversal. The change stems from revised estimates of temporary residents, including international students and temporary workers. The adjustments reach back to July 2021.

Statistics Canada incorporated new Canada Border Services Agency data to estimate departures before permits expire and adjusted estimates for people whose extension applications were still being processed. Earlier departure estimates had relied on permit expiry dates. As a result, the estimated decline in temporary residents is much smaller: for the 18 months ending in April 2026, the group was previously estimated to have fallen by about 590,500 people, compared with a revised decline of about 185,000. Temporary resident numbers still fell by nearly 18,900, or 0.7 per cent, in the second quarter of 2026, but the decrease was smaller than in either of the two previous quarters. Study permit numbers fell while work permit numbers rose.

Permanent immigration continued to support population growth. About 99,200 people became permanent residents in the second quarter of 2026, 4.2 per cent fewer than a year earlier but more than in the first quarter. In the four quarters ending in June 2026, permanent immigration totalled about 368,200 people. That includes newcomers and people already in Canada who changed from temporary to permanent status.

The revisions also changed the provincial picture. Earlier estimates showed annual population declines in seven of the 10 provinces. Updated figures show every province had more residents than a year earlier in both April and July 2026. British Columbia and Ontario had particularly large revisions, reflecting their relatively high shares of temporary residents. Even after the revisions, Ontario’s annual population growth was only 0.3 per cent in July 2026. Alberta led the provinces at 1.5 per cent, adding about 76,400 residents to reach approximately 5.1 million. Saskatchewan and New Brunswick followed, each growing by about one per cent.

Interprovincial migration also contributed to Western Canada’s population growth. Alberta gained a net 5,893 residents from other provinces in the second quarter of 2026, a trend linked to its comparatively stronger economy and more affordable housing. British Columbia also gained more residents from other provinces than it lost.

The revised temporary resident estimates have implications for federal immigration policy. Temporary residents accounted for 6.6 per cent of Canada’s population in July 2026, slightly below a revised 6.7 per cent in April. Before the revisions, the April share was estimated at 6.1 per cent. That leaves the federal government’s updated goal of reducing the temporary resident share to five per cent further away than earlier figures suggested.

Central 1 noted that many people who come to Canada temporarily build careers and personal ties, then seek ways to stay. It argues for greater flexibility in federal policy and warns that further restrictions would put more pressure on rental housing markets and economic activity. Without policy changes, many temporary residents will likely leave as their options for remaining become more challenging.

The higher population estimates also affect how recent economic performance is interpreted. Some of the strength in total consumer spending may reflect the larger number of people living in Canada, while a higher population makes the improvement in economic output per person appear smaller. Revised estimates incorporated into labour market statistics could push reported unemployment rates higher. Both employment and the labour force would likely increase, but Central 1 anticipates some upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

In a separate analysis released in late September 2026, Central 1 forecast a weaker second half of the year after Canada’s economy made virtually no progress in July. Gross domestic product was essentially unchanged that month following a 0.4 per cent increase in June. Output was up 1.4 per cent from a year earlier, down from June’s annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent. Results varied across industries: construction output rose 1.3 per cent, led by non-residential projects.

Central 1 also expects higher bond yields, as they pass through to mortgage rates, to slow any improvement in the housing market. It expects the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate steady into 2027. A weaker growth outlook reduces the urgency for a rate increase, the analysis said, although high and unpredictable oil prices remain a major inflation risk.