Three federal byelections set for Monday, with Chicoutimi-Le Fjord race in focus

Canadians in three ridings will elect new MPs on Monday, with contests scheduled in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. North Vancouver-Capilano and Beaches-East York are considered relatively safe Liberal seats left vacant by former cabinet ministers, while Chicoutimi-Le Fjord could offer a more competitive test for the Conservatives.

In North Vancouver-Capilano, former minister Jonathan Wilkinson resigned in June for a diplomatic posting in Europe after taking nearly 60 per cent of the vote in April 2025. Liberal candidate Braeden Caley is a former deputy chief of staff to Mark Carney and a senior member of Carney’s election campaign. Conservative Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer who received just over 33 per cent in 2025, is running again, while NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale works for the local MLA.

In Toronto-area Beaches-East York, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz, a former constituency office manager for Nate Erskine-Smith, seeks to retain the seat. Erskine-Smith, first elected in 2015, has ruled out another run after briefly serving in cabinet and ending his bid for provincial Liberal leadership. Shannon Devine returns as the NDP candidate and Jim Sybros runs for the Conservatives. Erskine-Smith won more than 67 per cent of the vote in 2025.

The rural Chicoutimi-Le Fjord riding, about 200 kilometres north of Quebec City, was tightly contested in 2025, when former Conservative MP Richard Martel narrowly held off Bloc Québécois and Liberal opponents. Martel later left Pierre Poilievre’s caucus after being nominated to the Senate by Carney. Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is a dairy farmer and former provincial dairy-association president.

McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland said Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is the race to watch, citing the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the Saguenay region’s aluminum, forestry and dairy sectors. An Angus Reid Institute poll taken after trade talks ended last weekend found that 75 per cent of Canadians, including 85 per cent of Quebec respondents, supported the federal government’s decision to leave the negotiations. Analysts cautioned that late-summer byelections often draw low turnout and that Quebec’s provincial campaign may further complicate the result.

The Liberals held 171 seats as of Sunday, maintaining a House of Commons majority. The Conservatives had 139 seats, the Bloc 21 and the NDP five; Green Leader Elizabeth May remained the party’s sole MP. Monday’s vote will fill three of six vacancies, with three more byelections still to be called.