Poll puts B.C. Conservatives five points ahead, with no late NDP surge

A new poll shows the B.C. Conservatives leading the NDP by five points among decided voters as the provincial election campaign enters its final week. Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group said the main takeaway is that the Conservatives are ahead and, based on the overall pattern, it will be difficult for the NDP to close the gap in the time remaining.

The poll found the Conservatives with at least marginal leads in every region of the province and a large lead among Punjabi and Chinese speakers, key voters in several Lower Mainland swing ridings. Lyle said it remains a “time for a change” election. Elections often evolve from a referendum on the government into a choice between alternatives, he said, but voters have grown more angry with the NDP as this campaign has progressed.

Lyle said another question was whether B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson could emerge as someone voters see as able to lead the province. The poll found gains of six to 10 points on specific leadership attributes, including a 10-point increase in the share of voters who rated him the most competent choice. In a comparison with B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, Doerkson was ahead by two points. Lyle called it a statistical tie, while saying Doerkson had bragging rights. He said the result was remarkable because Eby has been premier for years and called the election, while Doerkson was an unknown backbench MLA until four weeks ago.

The poll found no sign of a last-minute surge for the NDP, although the party could narrow the gap with Green voters. Among voters who have a second choice, 37 per cent said they had not fully made up their minds. The figure was highest among Green voters, at 54 per cent. This group is less certain than supporters of any other party and is also the most likely to favour the NDP as its second choice. Lyle said that still would not be enough to close the current five-point gap completely.

Lyle compared agreement with the statement “it’s time for a change” with the highest levels recorded during the tenures of John Horgan and Christy Clark. He said Clark went on to lose, and that the numbers for Eby were three points higher than for Clark and 10 points higher than Horgan’s worst day. The poll asked whether respondents strongly or somewhat agreed; the share who strongly agreed rose by 10 points during the campaign. Lyle said the trend shows things getting worse for the premier.

The Conservatives’ largest lead was in the Lower Mainland south of the Fraser River, Lyle said. Other parts of the province were closer, but the party held at least a marginal lead there too. Fewer than 10 per cent were undecided, he said. The more significant group is people who want to hear more before deciding: about one-third of Conservative and NDP voters still wanted more information, making their choices fairly firm. More than half of Green voters wanted to hear more. Lyle said that could give the NDP a small lift because Green voters’ second choices favour the NDP by two to one.

The online survey was conducted from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026, using INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national research panel, with additional respondents from Lucid, an online sample provider. Each survey draws a series of randomly selected panel samples and weights the results so the overall sample composition reflects Canada’s population according to Statistics Canada census data. The results are intended to approximate a probability sample.

The sample comprised 1,153 B.C. citizens aged 18 or older. It was weighted for B.C. to an equivalent sample size of 1,000, based on Statistics Canada census data.