Forecast suggests El Niño will extend fall and delay winter

The Weather Network’s three-month outlook suggests much of Canada will have a mild fall, with a potentially historic El Niño expected to extend the season and delay winter. September and October will still bring swings between warmth and cold, stormy weather, but senior meteorologist Doug Gillham expects conditions to trend milder and drier in many regions.

Gillham said El Niño shifts storm tracks south, brings milder Pacific air into Canada and limits Arctic air moving south. That could mean fewer classic fall storms, a milder start to winter and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. He cautioned that an unprecedented El Niño could create surprises: fewer storms does not mean those that do occur will not be severe.

B.C. is expected to be warmer and drier through the rest of September and early October, offering little relief to wildfire-weary Interior communities that need more rain. Coastal precipitation should move closer to normal later in the season. Winter is expected to arrive late across the province, though alpine areas may be cold enough for a decent ski-season start.

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also expected to be generally mild, with intermittent cold spells. Most of the Prairies will be drier than normal, except southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Ontario and Quebec are expected to see typical fall conditions through October before a drier pattern develops later in fall and into November; Gillham does not expect sustained cold or early winter weather in Central Canada.

Atlantic Canada is expected to have near-normal temperatures and precipitation and a late start to persistent wintry weather, though warm Atlantic water could allow a storm approaching the region to retain intensity and moisture. Northern Canada is expected to be warmer than normal except western Yukon and parts of Baffin Island. The forecast notes Canada is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average and the Arctic three times faster.