Poll puts Liberals 14 points ahead of Conservatives as Canada-U.S. trade war escalates

A new Abacus Data poll puts the Liberals 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, their largest lead since Mark Carney became leader and the polling firm’s largest measured Liberal lead since May 2017.

If an election were held today, 47 per cent of committed voters said they would vote Liberal, compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP had eight per cent support, the Bloc Québécois seven per cent and the Green Party three per cent. The Liberal lead was four points wider than in Abacus Data’s late-August survey.

Liberal support was above 50 per cent in B.C., Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while the party was favoured by 48 per cent in Quebec. The Conservatives were favoured in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The survey was conducted during a critical stretch in the Canada-U.S. trade dispute, as federal counter-tariffs on nearly $25 billion worth of U.S. imports took effect Sept. 8. Since the previous survey, the Liberals also won three federal byelections held Aug. 31 in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said the political environment had shifted in favour of Carney and the Liberals after trade negotiations with the United States collapsed. He said Canadians had rallied behind the prime minister’s decision to reject the agreement offered by the United States, largely supported holding firm and were deeply distrustful of Canada’s negotiating counterpart.

Coletto said the government had spent recent weeks framing the dispute around sovereignty, independence, resilience and refusing a bad deal. That has given the prime minister political strength, he said, but could make the next stage more difficult.

Forty-six per cent of respondents identified the U.S. administration as their top concern, second only to the rising cost of living. The economy ranked third, followed by health care and housing affordability and accessibility.

The poll found that 68 per cent of respondents believed the Liberals were best positioned to deal with the Trump administration. Ten per cent held a positive impression of Trump, while 82 per cent held a negative one.

As the tariff conflict with the United States continues, 45 per cent said Canada was heading in the right direction and 41 per cent disagreed. A similar survey two weeks earlier found both views at 43 per cent.

Fifty-nine per cent approved of Carney’s government, up three points from the previous survey, while 57 per cent approved of its handling of the relationship with the United States. Fifty-four per cent had a positive impression of Carney, for a net impression of plus 27. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a net impression of minus 13.

The survey of 1,479 Canadian adults was conducted from Sept. 4 to 9, 2026. For a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size, the margin of error would be plus or minus 2.54 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.