Canada’s fractured immigration consensus is showing up at the ballot box

Canada’s long-standing consensus on immigration has fractured amid a rapid rise in arrivals after the pandemic and growing affordability pressures. The divide is beginning to show at the ballot box.

The Parti Québécois won a minority mandate in Quebec on a platform that included tighter immigration controls, which the party linked to protecting French culture and easing pressure on public services and housing. In Alberta, voters heading to the polls Monday will decide whether to hold a future referendum on separation from Canada and answer five immigration questions advanced by Premier Danielle Smith’s government. The questions ask whether Alberta should have more say over economic immigration; whether provincially funded services should be limited to citizens, permanent residents and people with “Alberta-approved” immigration status; whether non-permanent immigrants should pay to access health care and education; whether non-permanent residents should live in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for provincially funded social supports; and whether voters should have to show proof of citizenship in provincial elections. The article later refers to Smith urging support for nine immigration and constitutional questions in the referendum.

Jason Kenney, a former Alberta premier and federal immigration minister, said Canada needs a broader, evidence-based debate about immigration policy. “We do need a serious debate on immigration because demography is destiny. There are very few things that are more important,” he told The Canadian Press. He said the discussion should be disciplined, respectful and thoughtful, drawing as much as possible on evidence, data and experience around the world.

Kenney warned that immigration debates can be derailed by extreme political views, including accusations of racism from the far left and actual racism on the far right. He said he does not consider Alberta’s ballot questions race-based or xenophobic, but sees the province’s separatist movement as a different matter. Kenney said Mitch Sylvestre, leader of the main separatist organization, has said that in his envisioned Alberta republic, no one would have citizenship unless they were born there. Kenney said some currents on the extreme right of Alberta politics should concern everyone, but that this does not rule out a mature conversation about immigration policy.

The immigration questions have unsettled some diaspora communities in Alberta. Avnish Nanda, a lawyer and co-founder of advocacy group Our Alberta Advantage, is campaigning for a “no” vote on the immigration questions. He said reactions from Alberta’s cultural communities and people who have considered running for the United Conservative Party have been overwhelmingly negative. They see the questions as targeting them, their journeys to Alberta and the roots they have established over the past 60 years, he said.

Nanda said people feel fear, confusion and anger toward the government. They consider the questions unnecessary and tied to the separatism effort, and believe Smith is scapegoating them to retain the support of more extreme separatist elements that helped bring her to power. He said the referendum is bringing out ugly undercurrents in Alberta. His parents were recently “jeered by a couple of white guys in a car” while out for a walk, something he said had never happened since they came to Canada in the 1970s.

“These questions affect all of us, whether you’re a citizen or not,” Nanda said. He added that many people mobilized in support of the issue do not distinguish between those who have lived in Alberta for 40 years and those who arrived a week ago, because “we all look the same to them.” He said passage of the immigration measures Monday could undermine Canada’s multicultural identity, and that restricting access to provincial services would make it harder for newcomers to integrate.

In Quebec, the new Parti Québécois government campaigned on tightening immigration controls. Since 1991, Quebec has had far more control over its immigration system than other provinces. The party’s platform includes reducing annual permanent resident admissions from 45,000 to 35,000, imposing a moratorium on permanent immigration from outside Quebec, prioritizing permanent status for temporary residents already in the province and tightening selection criteria for temporary workers.

Catherine Xhardez, a political science professor at the University of Montreal, said the outgoing Coalition Avenir du Québec government politicized the immigration debate by introducing restrictions that the new government now wants to strengthen. She said political parties had previously shared a kind of consensus that migration benefits the economy, demography and even the French language. Before 2018, Quebec’s main parties generally agreed that prioritizing certain immigrants helped strengthen francophone culture, Xhardez said. The CAQ broke that consensus by arguing there was too much immigration too quickly and that numbers needed to come down, she said.

Xhardez said the key difference between the Quebec and Alberta debates is that Alberta’s is built around populist opposition blaming immigrants for shortages in social services, while Quebec’s puts identity and culture first. She added that immigration has also become a bargaining chip for Quebec in its dealings with Ottawa.

Smith wants a bargaining chip of her own. In a video released Wednesday, she encouraged Albertans to support the referendum’s nine immigration and constitutional questions to “send Ottawa a message.” She said one question aims to “give us the same power as Quebec to recruit economic migrants.” At a pro-unity campaign stop in Calgary on Thursday, Prime Minister Mark Carney urged the audience to vote “no to the nine,” a phrase that has become a rallying cry among those opposed to separatism.

Kenney said he is skeptical of greater provincial control over a “sensitive” matter such as immigration policy. He said provincial governments lack the federal government’s ability to detect fraud and tend to focus on local concerns rather than the national economic effects of immigration. In western provinces, he said, permanent residents recommended by provinces have typically been low-skilled temporary foreign workers whom local MLAs convert to permanent status after being browbeaten by Tim Hortons franchise owners.

Reflecting on his time as Alberta premier, Kenney said certain premiers told Ottawa after the COVID-19 pandemic that increasing immigration was their top priority, despite early evidence of housing and youth unemployment challenges that now drive the debate. He said a lack of social permission to discuss these issues can create conditions where public opinion becomes completely detached from elite opinion. To see what that looks like, he pointed to European politics. Avoiding politics like those of Alternative für Deutschland, Front National and U.K. Reform requires a proper, open debate, he said.

Xhardez, who is originally from Belgium, said Canada’s political scene differs greatly from Europe and the United States: there is no mainstream anti-immigrant party at the federal level. Public views on immigration have shifted, however, and no one knows for certain how that will affect Canadian politics. Canada may not be exceptional, she said, or it may become an exception by remaining less politicized; but strong public support and consensus can no longer be assumed.

Nanda said some of the loudest opposition to Alberta’s immigration questions has come from chambers of commerce, which represent businesses struggling to recruit staff. He said someone in politics needs to champion the idea that immigrants strengthen economies, expand the tax base and help fund social programs and services. He argued that affordability pressures in communities stem from failed government investment in education and health care, and that immigrants being scapegoated can help reverse those problems. In rural Alberta hospitals and long-term care facilities, he said, most nurses and support staff are immigrants because local workers cannot be found; many educational facilities face the same situation.