Strong El Niño could bring exceptionally mild B.C. winter

British Columbia could see an unusually mild, possibly exceptionally mild winter as a strong El Niño develops, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada research scientist Bill Merryfield.

Forecast models project equatorial Pacific warming of more than 3 C, Merryfield said. El Niño events are considered very strong when that warming exceeds 2 C, and the predicted conditions could be among the strongest in at least a century.

On B.C.’s coast, warmer temperatures could mean more winter rain and less snow, reducing the snowpack. Milder conditions may persist into May or early June, potentially bringing earlier snowmelt. If spring and summer rainfall does not make up the difference, dry conditions could contribute to drought.

Warmer coastal waters could also draw species normally found farther south, including dolphins and semi-tropical fish. Weaker or reversed trade winds can reduce nutrient upwelling, which may diminish spring phytoplankton growth and affect the marine food web.